Predicting the risk of early menopause in childhood cancer survivors
Currently over 80% of children diagnosed with cancer will survive for more than 5 years, thanks to advances in cancer treatment over the previous few decades. However, childhood cancer survivors are prone to chronic conditions later in life resulting from chemotherapy and radiation therapy during their cancer treatment. A typical reproductive condition arising in female cancer survivors is early menopause, defined as menopause occurring naturally before age 40. In the general population, approximately 1 % of women have early menopause, but this proportion is much higher in female childhood cancer survivors. Women experiencing early menopause often report feelings of inadequacy and shame. Additionally, reproductive inability has a significant negative impact on women's health and wellness. Fertility preservation services are feasible, however many can be invasive, expensive and traumatic to young girls. The significance of this condition in childhood cancer survivors has demonstrated the need to identify individuals at a high risk of developing early menopause. I will develop a model that accurately predicts the risk of a female cancer patient developing menopause at prespecified ages. I will use the model to convert the absolute risk of developing early menopause into a score. This score can then be used by clinicians, patients and patients' family members to inform decision-making. Of particular interest is whether the discussion of fertility preservation can be postponed until the patient is older or if the risk is significant enough that a decision regarding fertility preservation needs to be made as soon as possible. The score can help reassure patients who have a low risk of developing early menopause and allow them to avoid undergoing unnecessary procedures. The end product of my project will improve the lives and wellbeing of female cancer survivors well into their adulthood, ensuring that future reproductive ability is protected and that appropriate action is taken to counter any lasting impacts from treatment exposures.